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Blog Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
Blog Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.
Blog U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023 U.S. Inflation Outlook: A Meaningful Shift in the Second Half of 2023 After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
Blog Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak Rising Macro Risks May Limit Fed From Reaching Its Projected Peak The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.
Blog Evolving Risks Prompt One More (Likely Final) Fed Hike Evolving Risks Prompt One More (Likely Final) Fed Hike Tighter credit conditions pose increasing risks to economic activity, leading the U.S. Federal Reserve to signal a likely pause.
Allison Boxer Economist Share Share Share via LinkedIn Share via Facebook Share via Twitter Share via Email Add Add Download Download Print Print Ms. Boxer is a senior vice president and economist in the New York office, focusing on the U.S. and Canada. She helps craft the firm’s economic and monetary policy outlook and contributes to quarterly economic forums. She is also a member of the research group of PIMCO’s Americas portfolio committee. She has nine years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from Tufts University.
