債券の銘柄選択

債券の銘柄選択: 住宅市場でライジングスターを探す

モヒト・ミッタルとジェシカ・トムが、PIMCO独自のリサーチが住宅市場の景気サイクルを捉え、投資機会を生み出すためどのような役割を果たしたのかをご説明いたします。

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Mohit Mittal: The housing sector is about 15% of the U.S. economy, which includes construction activity, which includes transaction activity, lending activity. So, what happened in the housing sector impacts the entire economy. There are so many different opportunities within this sector. My name is Mohit Mittal. I'm a managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO.

Jessica Tom: Housing is a great sector to follow. It’s so multidisciplinary in terms of looking beyond the financial statements, but to really understand what drives demand. My name is Jessica Tom. I’m a credit research analyst here at PIMCO. The research process here is analytical and bottoms-up. We take a very active approach. There is such a focus on looking for what’s going to happen in the market before it actually happens. When you look at historical housing cycles, they typically lasted three to five years with the recovery lasting two to three. The way we have formed the team here with a good portion of very senior analysts who have 10 to 15 years of experience covering their sectors, many of us have seen a full cycle, from peak to trough.

Mohit Mittal: Prior to the financial crisis, we would actually underweight the sector. We were bearish on the housing market. When we saw prices falling to a point that it looked very attractive. We also saw that inventories were clearing at a pace that was faster than what the market and we were anticipating. So we starting to look for opportunities to invest. As we started to see pickup in construction activity, we shifted our focus to building material companies. As house prices improved, we started to see pickup in transaction activity, which is when we shifted our focus to title insurance companies. So over time we think we have been successful in navigating this particular housing cycle.

Jessica Tom: One of the benefits of having a very large research team is that analysts are allowed to really dig deep into small, discrete issuers. We build our own models. We visit the companies and we build our relationships directly with the issuers.

Mohit Mittal: We are active managers and about a third of the time our ratings are different from the rating agency ratings. In the cases where our views are better than the current state of the company we will call that a rising star company.

Jessica Tom: For example, having followed this wallboard company for a long period of time we were able to identify that there were real changes going on in the business where the company was implementing significant cost savings, undertaking divestiture of assets to de-lever and evolve from a highly levered, barely generating any free cash flow company into a very conservative rising star. We were able to have faith in the company even when the market didn’t. And today, with their financial discipline they were upgraded from triple C to high double B.

Mohit Mittal: By construct, the passive investors will miss out on such opportunities, because they are investing based upon what the current state of the company instead of anticipating where the company is headed. We recognize we will not be successful all the time but we think our framework is such that we will be able to add value consistently. We are looking at the fundamentals of companies today, but we are trying to think about what they’ll look like two years from today. The market will get there in the future but we want to get there first.

Disclosures


Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by PIMCO will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to PIMCO in connection with managing the strategy. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision.

The credit quality of a particular security or group of securities does not ensure the stability or safety of an overall portfolio. The quality ratings of individual issues/issuers are provided to indicate the credit-worthiness of such issues/issuer and generally range from AAA, Aaa, or AAA (highest) to D, C, or D (lowest) for S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch respectively.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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クリア
Tina Adatia
プロダクト・ストラテジスト
Olivia A. Albrecht
ESGおよび債券ストラテジスト
Mike Amey
Libby Cantrill
エグゼクティブ・オフィス
Stephen Chang
ポートフォリオ・マネージャー
Richard Clarida
元グローバル戦略アドバイザー、2006~2018年
Joachim Fels
グローバル 経済アドバイザー
David Fisher
伝統的プロダクト戦略統括
Daniel H. Hyman
Head of Agency MBS Portfolio Management
Daniel J. Ivascyn
グループ最高投資責任者(グループ CIO)
Mark R. Kiesel
グローバル・クレジット担当最高投資責任者(CIO)
Ryan Korinke
ヘッジ・ファンドおよびクオンツ戦略の統括責任者
Jason Mandinach
クレジット・ストラテジスト
Scott A. Mather
米国コア戦略担当最高投資責任者(CIO)
Lalantika Medema
オルタナティブ・クレジット・ストラテジスト
Mohit Mittal
ポートフォリオ・マネージャー
Alfred T. Murata
モーゲージ・クレジットチームのポートフォリオ・マネージャー
Emmanuel Roman
最高経営責任者(CEO)
Jerome M. Schneider
ショートタームおよびファンディング・デスクの統括責任者
Sapna Shah
社会的責任の統括責任者
Anmol Sinha
債券ストラテジスト
Cathy Stahl
グローバル・マーケティング責任者
Christian Stracke
グローバル・クレジット・リサーチ・グループの統括責任者
Geraldine Sundstrom
アセットアロケーション戦略担当のポートフォリオ・マネージャー
Jessica K. Tom
シニア・クレジット・アナリスト
Eve Tournier
汎欧州クレジット・ポートフォリオ・マネジメント統括責任者
Mihir P. Worah
アセットアロケーションおよびリアル・リターン担当最高投資責任者(CIO)
PIMCO
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PIMCOの視点

2019年長期経済予測:投資家にとっての意味合い

2019年長期経済予測:投資家にとっての意味合い

向こう35年に投資家は何を期待できるでしょうか。グループCIOのダン・アイバシンとグローバル・エコノミック・アドバイザーのヨアヒム・フェルズが、向こう35年の経済及び市場の状況と投資家が考慮すべきことについて論じます。

運用戦略

短観:ポートフォリオのリスク削減によりリターンも改善されるのか

短観:ポートフォリオのリスク削減によりリターンも改善されるのか

ショート・ターム運用は、インカムの獲得とポートフォリオのリスク削減を考える投資家に魅力的な投資機会を提供してくれるでしょう。ポートフォリオマネジャーのジェローム・シュナイダーが、同アセットクラスへの投資が消極的なアセットアロケーション以上の意味がある理由をご説明します。

インベストメント・コミッティー

債券市場ではなおも防御が最大の攻撃

債券市場ではなおも防御が最大の攻撃

ポートフォリオでは徐々にリスクを積み増しながらも、今後の不透明な環境下で守りの姿勢を維持している理由について、 グループ最高投資責任者(グループCIO)のダン・アイバシンがご説明いたします。

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