Viewpoints

5 Trends That Could Disrupt Markets

What risks lie beyond the near-term horizon? PIMCO experts discuss the secular trends that have the potential to disrupt the global economy, financial markets and investors’ portfolios over the next several years. Visit pimco.com/secular-outlook to read more.

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Tina Adatia: This year we've described the secular framework as dealing with disruptions. So Joachim, can you talk a little bit about those disruptions and what we're expecting?

Joachim Fels: So, what are these secular trends that we think will lead to disruption over the next five years or so? Well, here are five of them.

The first one is China, you know, with its economic and geopolitical ambitions. So we think that will be very disruptive. Populism, second theme, not a new theme.

But we are now seeing how populism increasingly rhymes with protectionism, right? So think about the trade war. And so the risk of deglobalization is really increasing further.

Third disruptor is demographics. Again you can ask, "Well, that's been around for a long time. We know about population aging and about rising longevity.”

But I think we're now at the stage where it can become disruptive, because the global saving glut keeps increasing. This is keeping interest rates low, lower for longer, and the longer that lasts, the more disruptive it can become.

Then technology, well, I think everybody knows technology is disruptive.

But I think we're seeing more and more of that in the corporate sector. So there are a lot of winners and losers that we have to take into account.

And then finally, financial market vulnerability. This is something that has been building in the course of this expansion. We are worried about certain aspects of market structure, and we think that this could come back to haunt us in that next downturn.

Tina Adatia: Thank you Joachim. You've got any other questions, please contact your PIMCO representative. Thank you and have a good day.

Disclosure


All investments contain risk and may lose value. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. 

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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